Richards Bay terminal eyes 62 million tonnes as Transnet rail gains hold

Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) had exported just over 30 million tonnes of coal by the end of June 2026, chief executive Alan Waller said, putting the terminal on pace to beat its initial 60-million-tonne forecast for the year if Transnet Freight Rail keeps up its recent performance. Waller said an optimistic scenario could see the terminal reach around 62 million tonnes, building on the 56.5 million tonnes shipped in 2025.

Locomotives bed in

The improvement follows the full deployment of 102 new Alstom-built locomotives on the coal line, which Waller said have helped stabilise operations after years of underperformance caused by ageing rolling stock, cable theft and derailments. A derailment in June 2026 cost the network about 700,000 tonnes of lost export capacity, but Waller said Transnet's recovery from the incident was unusually swift, with the operator quickly returning to its prior railage rate.

Security incidents on the coal line have fallen to levels last seen in 2020, with Waller reporting no export cancellations due to theft or sabotage in the period, a marked change from the disruption that plagued the corridor in recent years.

Market backdrop

Coal export prices were hovering around $103 a tonne at the time, with Waller noting no significant demand shock from tensions in the Middle East and stock levels at the terminal holding steady. That relative price stability, combined with improving rail throughput, has allowed South African producers to plan shipments with more confidence than at any point in the past several years.

What it means

If Transnet can maintain an annualised railage rate close to 64 million tonnes, as it briefly achieved before the June maintenance shutdown, RBCT's full-year total could approach levels not seen since before the rail network's decline. For coal miners including Thungela, Exxaro and Glencore, sustained rail capacity is the precondition for any new investment in export-focused mining capacity, making Transnet's operational trajectory as important to the sector's outlook as coal prices themselves.

Sources

• Miningmx: SA coal exports could rise 10% in 2026, says terminal, 22 Jul 2026

Photo: A bulk carrier being loaded with coal at Richards Bay Coal Terminal. Ossewa, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.