Ivanhoe stuns market with deep cut to Kamoa-Kakula guidance

Ivanhoe Mines has slashed near-term production guidance for its flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, surprising analysts and resetting investor expectations that had only recently begun to stabilise after a year of seismic-related disruption.

The company now expects 2026 copper anode output of 290,000 to 330,000 tonnes, down from a previously guided 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes, while 2027 production is now put at 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes versus a prior projection of 500,000 to 540,000 tonnes. Ivanhoe released the update after markets closed, citing a shift toward underground development, rehabilitation and access work that will constrain ore delivery over the next 18 to 24 months. The company also raised its expected cash costs.

A material reset

"The headline takeaway was a material reset to near-term expectations," Jefferies analyst Fahad Tariq said in a note, adding that investors had not anticipated the downgrade. "We view the update as a clear acknowledgment that operational challenges at Kakula are taking longer to resolve than initially envisaged, pushing volume recovery further out."

A more conservative mine

At the core of the revision was a new reserve model that cut contained copper by 24.7% and reduced reserve grade by 28%, reflecting more conservative assumptions, lower cut-off grades and revised mine sequencing. Ivanhoe capped underground extraction rates at about 60%, down from 70% to 80% or higher previously, as it widened pillars and excluded inaccessible areas to improve long-term stability. The reset underscored a broader trade-off facing large underground mining projects: sacrificing short-term output to secure more reliable, efficient production over the long run. For a market already grappling with tight copper supply, the cut removed hundreds of thousands of tonnes of expected near-term output from forecasts almost overnight, and would soon be echoed by Zijin Mining's own downgraded expectations for its share of the same joint venture. Ivanhoe insisted the new plan, however disappointing in the near term, gave the company a more durable foundation for the mine's eventual return to its long-run target of about 550,000 tonnes a year, rather than repeating the pattern of overly optimistic timelines that had characterised the previous twelve months.

Sources

• Mining.com: Ivanhoe stuns market with deep Kamoa-Kakula output cut, 01 Apr 2026

Photo: A copper mine in Kolwezi in the DRC's Katanga copperbelt region. Rob Mieremet / Anefo, Wikimedia Commons, CC0.