Exxaro warns of up to 23% earnings fall despite stronger coal exports

Exxaro Resources told shareholders on 14 August 2026 to expect headline earnings per share of between 1,327c and 1,414c for the six months to June, down 18% to 23% on the 1,724c reported a year earlier. The trading statement came despite a solid operational performance from the coal business itself, underlining how exposed Exxaro's bottom line has become to its minority stakes in other commodities.

Coal holds up, associates don't

Exxaro's own coal exports rose 15% to 3.94 million tonnes in the half, while total group coal sales increased 6% to 20.2 million tonnes. Export thermal coal prices strengthened markedly, touching $124 a tonne during the period on a roughly 35% year-on-year increase, before easing toward a forecast average nearer $105 a tonne for the year, against $92 a tonne previously. The drag on earnings instead came from Exxaro's 21% stake in Kumba Iron Ore, where a stronger rand and above-inflation cost increases reduced the contribution, and from its 24.4% holding in Black Mountain Mining, hit by higher costs and a delayed ramp-up at the Gamsberg zinc project in the Northern Cape.

Guidance intact

Exxaro maintained full-year coal export guidance of 7.3 million to 8 million tonnes, with total coal sales expected at 39.4 million to 42.8 million tonnes, spanning both export-quality coal and the power-station coal it supplies to Eskom's Medupi and Matimba plants from Grootegeluk. Group EBITDA is expected to be broadly in line with the prior corresponding period, suggesting the coal division's cash generation is cushioning the group against weaker associate income.

Why it matters

The results illustrate a structural feature of Exxaro's earnings: coal remains the reliable core, but the company's diversification into iron ore and zinc, intended to reduce its dependence on thermal coal as global demand shifts, is currently adding volatility rather than stability. With Grootegeluk still supplying roughly half of South Africa's remaining coal reserves and feeding two of Eskom's largest power stations, Exxaro's coal output continues to matter well beyond its own balance sheet.

Sources

• Miningmx: Exxaro flags up to 23% earnings fall on lower Sishen, BMM income, 14 Aug 2026

Photo: Medupi power station near Lephalale, Limpopo, which Exxaro's Grootegeluk coal mine supplies. JMK, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.