De Beers slashes 2026 output guidance as Anglo weighs fresh writedown

De Beers lowered its 2026 production guidance to a range of 21 million to 26 million carats, down from a previous forecast of 26 million to 29 million carats, as it reported full-year 2025 output of 21.66 million carats, well below 2024's 24.71 million carats.

The fourth quarter alone told the story of the year: group production fell 35% year-on-year to 3.8 million carats, with Botswana output down 56% to 1.9 million carats as the Jwaneng plant sat idle for the entire quarter for maintenance optimisation and Orapa underwent its own shutdown in October. Namibia's output fell 21% to 500,000 carats amid scheduled vessel maintenance and the earlier decommissioning of two vessels, while South African production dipped 10% to 500,000 carats. Only Canada bucked the trend, rising as new ore access came on stream at Gahcho Kue.

Prices keep sliding

The consolidated average realised price for the full year fell 7% to $142 per carat, reflecting a 12% drop in the average rough price index and De Beers's own efforts to rebalance stock levels rather than force sales into a weak market. Anglo American, which owns 85% of De Beers, was reported to be considering a further writedown of the business's carrying value as it pressed on with a structured sale process for the unit.

A downturn with no quick end in sight

The scale of the guidance cut underlined how far the diamond market had deteriorated since De Beers's last major upgrade cycle, with lab-grown competition, weak Chinese luxury spending and broader macroeconomic uncertainty all cited as headwinds. For Botswana and Namibia, both heavily reliant on De Beers's joint ventures for government revenue, the announcement confirmed that 2026 would bring no meaningful production rebound, extending a fiscal squeeze that had already forced budget revisions in both countries.

What comes next

The guidance cut set the tone for what would become a turbulent year for De Beers, in which Anglo American's efforts to find a buyer for the business would run alongside further operational retrenchment, including the eventual decision to pause production altogether at the Venetia mine in South Africa. February's announcement was the first clear signal that 2026 would be defined as much by consolidation and cost-cutting as by any hoped-for recovery in demand.

Sources

• Mining Weekly: De Beers cuts 2026 guidance amid market challenges, lower 2025 output, 05 Feb 2026

Photo: Processing buildings at the Jwaneng diamond mine, whose extended maintenance shutdown weighed on De Beers's 2025 output. Cretep, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain.