WPIC sees fourth platinum deficit in 2026 despite first-quarter surplus

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported the platinum market's first quarterly surplus in six quarters but held to its view that 2026 would be the fourth consecutive year of deficit.

In its Platinum Quarterly for the first three months of 2026, dated 18 May, the council said the market recorded a 268koz surplus in the quarter, compared with a 658koz deficit a year earlier. For the full year it forecast a 297koz deficit, which would cut above-ground stocks to less than three months of demand.

Why the first quarter was different

Supply rose 18% year on year to 1,736koz. Mine supply jumped 22% because the flooding that disrupted South African output in early 2025 did not recur, while recycling increased 7% on higher prices. Demand of 1,468koz was dragged down by 225koz of net investment outflows as ETF holders sold, first on momentum after the price rally and later as the Iran war lifted inflation and interest-rate expectations.

The WPIC noted that the war began with US and Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026 and that Brent crude had since risen 55%, while platinum was 16% lower. Platinum had found support at around $2,000 an ounce after retreating from its January record high, a level roughly double the price in the first quarter of 2025.

Supply cannot respond quickly

For South African producers, the council's supply commentary was pointed. It said Ivanhoe's Platreef mine was the first greenfield project commissioned in South Africa since Styldrift in 2019, illustrating how hard it is for miners to react quickly to higher prices. Mine supply is expected to be stable for 2026 as a whole, leaving recycling as the main near-term source of growth. Even there, recyclers reported receiving lower-grade spent catalysts, which the WPIC said may indicate that stockpiles held back during the 2023 and 2024 price slump are being worked through.

Demand forecast

Total 2026 demand was forecast to fall 9% to 7,674koz. Industrial demand was expected to grow 9%, but jewellery was forecast to drop 12% and investment 54%, with automotive demand down a modest 2%. Research director Ed Sterck told Miningmx that the underlying market remained tight, with constrained supply and demand that is largely insensitive to price.

The forecast did not survive the second quarter. By September, continued ETF selling had led the WPIC to switch its 2026 call to a 265koz surplus. But the May report is a useful marker of how the council saw the balance before investment outflows deepened, and of the structural point it continues to make: South African mine supply is not responding meaningfully to price.

Sources

• World Platinum Investment Council: Platinum Quarterly Q1 2026, 18 May 2026
• Miningmx: Investors take profits from platinum but tailwinds persist, 18 May 2026

Photo: A vehicle catalytic converter, the largest single use of platinum group metals. Santeri Viinamäki, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.