WPIC now sees 2026 platinum surplus of 265koz after heavy first-half ETF selling

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has reversed its call for a fourth consecutive platinum deficit. In its Platinum Quarterly for the second quarter, published on 9 September 2026, the council forecast a surplus of 265koz for the full year, compared with a 297koz deficit projected in May.

Almost the entire revision reflects investment. Expected investment demand was cut by 601koz, to a net outflow of 83koz, after exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings fell by more than 500koz in the first half, about a seventh of holdings at the end of 2025.

A surplus front-loaded into the first half

The market recorded a 244koz surplus in the second quarter, taking the first-half surplus to 548koz. Total demand fell 16% year on year to 1,663koz in the quarter, with net disinvestment of 121koz and jewellery demand sharply lower against a strong base in China. Industrial demand grew 6%.

For the second half, the WPIC projects a 283koz deficit as demand rises 24% half on half to 3,931koz while supply holds steady. Research director Edward Sterck told Miningmx the turnaround simply requires ETF selling to stop rather than a surge in buying.

The report ties the first-half weakness to the conflict between the US and Iran, restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy prices and rising interest-rate expectations, which hurt appetite for non-yielding metals. The platinum price fell 24% over the first half, ending June 46% below its late-January high of $2,875/oz.

South African supply

For producers, the supply picture matters most. Sterck said South African platinum output rose 19% year on year in the first half, largely because Amandelbult returned to full production after the 2025 floods. He expects it to fall in the second half, partly because Valterra Platinum moved processing maintenance later in the year, leaving full-year South African production up only about 1%.

Global mine supply is forecast flat at about 5.55Moz, while recycling rises 8% to 1,802koz, lifting total supply 2% to 7,353koz. Sterck said higher prices had coaxed stockpiled catalytic converters onto the market, though older units with lower metal content suggest those stockpiles may be thinning.

Demand mix

Total 2026 demand is now seen falling 18% to 7,089koz. Jewellery is forecast to drop 15% and automotive demand 4%, while industrial demand rises 5%. The WPIC highlighted artificial intelligence as an emerging source of demand, forecasting platinum use in electrical applications up 19% and in glass up 23% this year. Even with the surplus, above-ground stocks would cover only about 3.4 months of demand at the end of 2026, following a 2025 deficit revised to more than 1.4Moz. The next report is due on 18 November.

Sources

• World Platinum Investment Council: Platinum Quarterly Q2 2026, 09 Sept 2026
• Miningmx: Platinum deficit beckons in second half as ETF selling eases, 09 Sept 2026

Photo: A nugget of native platinum. Alchemist-hp (talk) (www.pse-mendelejew.de), Wikimedia Commons, FAL.