Manganese oversupply from South Africa keeps prices under pressure

Manganese ore prices remained under sustained pressure through late 2025 and into 2026, having fallen sharply, down 41% for the high-grade index and 34% for the semi-carbonate index, between June and September 2024 as an oversupply situation took hold. Roughly six million tonnes of manganese ore sat stockpiled at Chinese ports, a glut that persisted even as demand from Chinese alloy smelters slowed. Producers including Eramet cut output in an attempt to stabilise the market, with prices little changed in the immediate aftermath of those cuts.

South Africa, alongside Gabon, was a significant contributor to the oversupply: manganese ore production climbed to around 10.1 million tonnes in the first half of the relevant period, buoyed by strong export volumes from both countries even as the market signalled it needed less, not more, supply.

An awkward position for South African producers

South Africa holds the world's largest manganese reserves and remains one of its top exporters, giving the country an outsized influence over whether the global oversupply resolves. Yet that same scale meant South African and Gabonese producers bore much of the responsibility for the glut, creating a delicate balancing act between maintaining export volumes and market share on one hand, and supporting prices by holding back production on the other.

A market expected to stay volatile

Even as a rebound in sales pushed prices to a 2025 high of $4.48 a kilogram in one index measure, the fundamental oversupply had not been resolved by mid-2026, with global manganese supply still expected to expand faster than demand in the near term, keeping the risk of further price volatility alive for South African and Gabonese exporters alike.

Producers in South Africa's Northern Cape manganese fields said the persistent glut had forced difficult decisions over whether to cut output and cede market share, or continue shipping at depressed prices to preserve cash flow, a dilemma that showed few signs of resolving through the first half of 2026.

Analysts said the manganese market's struggles stood in sharp contrast to the extraordinary gains then being recorded in gold and PGMs, illustrating how divergent conditions could be across South Africa's mineral basket even within the same calendar year.

Sources

• Investing News Network: Manganese Market Forecast: Top Trends for Manganese in 2026, 15 Nov 2025

Photo: Manganese ore, a commodity in global oversupply through 2025 and 2026 partly driven by strong South African exports. கவிக்குமார் ப, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.