JPMorgan lifts copper forecast, sees deficit widening to 330,000 tonnes

JPMorgan's commodities research team forecast a refined copper deficit of roughly 330,000 tonnes for 2026, with the average price expected to come in near $12,075 a tonne for the year and to peak around $12,500 a tonne in the second quarter. The bank separately raised its long-term copper price forecast for the next decade to an average of $12,000 a tonne, a marked upgrade reflecting the view that new mining investment was not keeping pace with rising demand from electrification and data-centre construction.

The bank's supply-side concerns centred on delays and disruptions at large mines, a theme that would prove directly relevant to Africa: production setbacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo were among the factors cited later in the year when copper's actual price outstripped even JPMorgan's bullish full-year average, touching records above $14,800 a tonne by September.

Why bank forecasts matter to African miners

Forecasts from major banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs shape how mining companies and governments in Zambia and the DRC plan royalty revenue, budget for capital projects and negotiate offtake agreements. A structural upgrade to the long-term price outlook, as JPMorgan delivered, tends to support renewed investment interest in African copper projects that might otherwise have struggled to attract capital at lower assumed prices.

Forecasts overtaken by events

As with the ICSG's competing calls through the year, JPMorgan's numbers were ultimately overtaken by the reality of a market driven as much by US tariff policy and genuine supply disruption as by the underlying deficit forecasters had modelled, underscoring how difficult it had become to predict copper's path through 2026 using supply-demand balances alone.

Analysts noted that JPMorgan's forecast, published well before copper's eventual September records, had proved directionally correct even if its specific price levels were ultimately exceeded, lending credibility to the bank's broader thesis that supply growth would continue to lag the demands of electrification and data-centre construction for years to come.

Mining company treasurers said forecasts of this kind, from a bank with substantial commodities trading operations, carried particular weight in shaping how producers approached hedging decisions and long-term offtake negotiations with smelters and traders.

Sources

• GoldInvest: Copper Price in Focus: J.P. Morgan Raises Long-Term Forecast to $12,000 Per Tonne, 08 Apr 2026