China's chrome ore imports from South Africa hit record 12.5-million tonnes

Chinese buyers absorbed a record 12.5-million tonnes of South African chrome ore across 2025, up 23.8% on the previous year, industry data compiled by Shanghai Metals Market shows. The surge came as China's own ferrochrome smelting capacity and stainless steel output continued to expand, keeping demand for imported ore strong even as global stainless steel markets showed signs of softening.

South Africa's export volumes at a record too

South Africa's total chrome ore exports reached 23.77-million tonnes in 2025, a 15.7% increase on the 20.55-million tonnes shipped the previous year. China's dominance as a buyer has only grown since: in June 2026, Chinese buyers took 67.61% of South Africa's total monthly chrome ore exports, reaffirming its position as by far the country's largest customer for raw ore.

Ore up, ferrochrome down

The imbalance between soaring ore exports and declining ferrochrome exports has become the defining feature of South Africa's chrome trade. As electricity costs pushed domestic smelters offline, more South African chrome has left the country unprocessed, feeding Chinese ferrochrome plants rather than South African ones — precisely the dynamic the government's proposed 25% chrome export tax and beneficiation strategy is designed to reverse.

Why it matters for South Africa

China's insatiable appetite for South African chrome ore has been a lifeline for mining companies even as ferrochrome smelters struggled, since ore sales require no local smelting capacity and are far less exposed to Eskom's tariffs. But the same dynamic that has kept miners profitable has hollowed out the value-added smelting industry, costing thousands of jobs and shifting profit further up the value chain to Chinese ferrochrome producers.

What happens next

With export permitting and a possible export tax due to take effect, South Africa's policymakers are betting they can redirect at least some of this ore flow back toward domestic smelters — though industry has warned that doing so risks losing Chinese market share altogether if the tax makes South African ore uncompetitive.

Sources

• Mysteel: Chinese demand fuels 2025 surge in South Africa's chrome ore exports, 15 Jan 2026
• Shanghai Metals Market: [SMM Analysis] China's Chrome Ore Imports Hit All-time High in December 2025, South Africa as Dominant Player, 15 Jan 2026

Photo: Chromite ore, the raw material South Africa exports to China in record volumes. Darla Sondrol, Wikimedia Commons, CC0.