Stats SA: February mining output leaps 9.7% on PGM and China effect

Statistics South Africa data released on 15 April 2026 showed mining production up 9.7% year-on-year in February 2026, with platinum group metals surging 52.3%, chrome production up 26.9% and manganese production up 17.8%. Coal and iron ore production both fell 12.4% over the same period. Mineral sales, boosted by the sharply higher prices then prevailing across the PGM and gold complex, rose 58.3% year-on-year, with gold sales up 397% to R20bn and PGM sales up 132% to R23.1bn.

Bongani Motsa, acting chief economist at the Minerals Council South Africa, attributed much of the headline growth to the base effect of PGMs rather than a fresh surge in physical output, alongside China's strategic accumulation of steelmaking raw materials. "The growth was driven by the base effect of PGMs," Motsa said, cautioning that "much of the expansion reflects base effects rather than a structural demand shift."

Prices did the heavy lifting

The price data behind the sales figures explained why rand revenue outran physical volumes so dramatically: rhodium prices were up 135.4% year-on-year, platinum 118.8%, palladium 78.4% and gold 73.3%, while coal barely moved and iron ore fell 6.7%. That divergence, strong commodity prices layered on top of a soft production base, became a recurring theme in South Africa's mining statistics through 2026.

Why the distinction matters

Motsa's warning mattered because it separated a genuine recovery in the sector's fortunes from a temporary statistical flattery. Investors reading only the headline 9.7% production growth risked overstating the health of South African mining; the more accurate picture was of an industry whose rand earnings were being carried overwhelmingly by global commodity prices rather than by expanding tonnes dug out of the ground, a distinction that would recur in the Minerals Council's commentary on subsequent months' data.

The release also drew attention from economists at local banks, who used Motsa's base-effect caveat to temper market enthusiasm, cautioning clients against extrapolating February's headline growth rate into a durable production recovery for the rest of the year.

Investors in JSE-listed PGM producers were advised by analysts to treat the headline growth figure with caution, focusing instead on the underlying price data, which offered a clearer signal of the sector's likely earnings trajectory for the months ahead.

Sources

• Miningweekly: PGMs, China's stockpiling spur mining production leap, Minerals Council reports, 15 Apr 2026

Photo: A Transnet chrome ore train in South Africa, one of the commodities that recorded strong production growth in February 2026. Bob Adams from Amanzimtoti, South Africa, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0.