Pan African flags tripled earnings after record output, but guidance edges show strain

Pan African Resources told shareholders on 10 September that headline earnings per share for the year to 30 June 2026 would come in between 17.35 US cents and 17.94 US cents, an increase of 195% to 205% on the 5.89 US cents reported a year earlier. The trading statement sets up full results due on 16 September.

The jump reflects both volume and price. Gold production rose 38.3% to 272,373oz, according to Miningmx, and the gold was sold at an average of $4,235/oz, some 54.8% higher than in the previous financial year.

Bottom of the range on output, top of the range on cost

The numbers were good, but not flawless. Production landed at the lower end of guidance, and all-in sustaining costs of $1,870/oz were at the upper end of the forecast band. In its June operational update the company had already flagged that its 2027 cost guidance would rise sharply, to between $2,075/oz and $2,175/oz, blaming above-inflation increases in reagents, electricity and other key inputs.

Cyanide has been a specific pressure point. Miningmx reported that Pan African spent $7m during the year securing supplies of the reagent, a sign of the strain on chemical supply chains as tensions in the Middle East disrupted markets. South African gold producers were also affected earlier in 2026 by a force majeure at Sasol's cyanide business.

South African base, Australian growth

In its June update the company credited higher throughput and recoveries at the Mogale Tailings Retreatment (MTR) operation on the West Rand, a strong year at the Elikhulu tailings plant in Mpumalanga, and better grades and orebody access at the Evander and Barberton underground mines. Those gains offset a slower-than-expected ramp-up at Tennant Mines in Australia's Northern Territory. Evander's 8 Shaft development lifted recovered grades above 11g/t, while MTR improved in the second half despite a calcine layer that is weighing on grades and recoveries.

For FY2027 the group has guided to between 280,000oz and 302,000oz, with most of the increase expected from Tennant, where the ramp-up was slower than planned. During the year Pan African moved to buy out Emmerson Resources, its minority partner in the Tennant Creek field, in an all-share offer, and listed its shares on the Australian Securities Exchange.

A stronger balance sheet

The group moved back into a net cash position during the second half, after closing FY2025 with net debt of $46.2m. In June it projected total cash of about $220m at year end. That flexibility matters because Pan African is also preparing a final investment decision in December on its R3.68bn Soweto tailings retreatment project, which would lift peak output at the Mogale complex to about 100,000oz a year.

Pan African's shares have risen 62% over the past 12 months, Miningmx noted. The rising cost guidance for FY2027 will be the number investors watch most closely when the full results are published.

Sources

• Miningmx: Pan African to triple earnings despite testing edges of guidance, 10 Sept 2026
• Yahoo Finance UK: Pan African Resources Plc - Operational Update ahead of year ending 30 June 2026, 01 Jun 2026

Photo: Stacked gold bullion bars. Stevebidmead, Wikimedia Commons, CC0.